Book Review

Family North Carolina Magazine—January/February 2009

by R. Matthew Lytle, Ph.D.

Demographic Winter

SRB Documentary. “Demographic Winter: The Decline of the Human Family.” SRB Documentary, 2008. 56 Minutes. $19.95.

“The ‘population bomb’ (much heralded in the 1960’s and 1970’s [sic]) never detonated and most developed nations are now experiencing fertility rates far below replacement levels.”
Demographic Winter

According to Demographic Winter, exactly the world is experiencing the exact opposite of a “population bomb.” The demographers and economists (including a Nobel Laureate) interviewed in this documentary all agree that the vast majority of populations on the planet are not having enough children to maintain the population numbers. The experts predict that the population could decrease by 50 percent in 50 years.

Even so, the population is currently increasing in developed countries, mainly because people are living longer; it is not increasing due to great amounts of children being born. Phillip Longman with the New America Foundation notes, “It’s happening in rich and poor countries … throughout the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, North and South … under all forms of government, birthrates are plummeting throughout the world.” If the numbers continue to decline, then a time will come—most likely sooner than later—when the younger will not have the resources to care for the elderly. And they can expect no help from the subsequent generations.

While the claims made by this documentary may sound alarmist, current economic developments seem to indicate that the interpretations given in the documentary are valid. The documentary notes that there is a 48-year lag between the birth of a group and the peak spending of that group. The boom year of the Baby Boom was 1961, meaning that 2009 would begin to see a dramatic decline in the nation’s economy since subsequent generations had been having significantly fewer children. The sudden and dramatic economic downturn may well be the harbinger of the coming demographic winter.

As interesting—and potentially horrifying—as the conclusions suggested by the experts based on the data are, the reasons they suggest for the demographic winter are truly provocative. The following list presents their findings:

• Working and educated mothers.
  
• Richer countries have greater aspirations and spend more money on themselves.
  
• The sexual revolution.
  
• The no-fault divorce revolution.
  
• Inaccurate assumptions about the “population bomb”.
  

The result of the data analyzed by the experts in this documentary—some of whom are neither Christian nor conservative—is that an abandonment of traditional family values—especially the devaluation of marriage—can have a potentially catastrophic effect on the population of the entire planet.

In a fascinating turn, several demographers drew attention to some implications for Darwinism. As the dominant species on the planet, humanity should be filling the earth in its drive to reproduce, yet the exact opposite is happening. Darwinists are left with two extremely unpalatable propositions: either Darwinism is wrong or humanity is on the verge of extinction. Several of the demographers seem unwilling to choose either one of these options. Unfortunately, they offer no alternative.

The demographers give two options to delay or even stop the coming of the demographic winter. The first option is the so-called “Swedish Model.” In the Swedish Model, the government regulates societal structures, including the population. In the context of the demographic winter, the Swedish Model mandates the government paying citizens to have children. Several countries in Eastern Europe have tried this approach, but it is not enough.

The other option is to promote traditional family values, especially marriage. Demographers point to research that shows that happily married couples tend to have more, well-adjusted children. Indeed, those sections of the population that emphasize the family (Orthodox Jews, Christians, and Muslims) are actually having enough children to keep those sections growing. Since the Swedish Model does not work, each of the demographers urged the promotion of traditional family, even those with otherwise progressive values.

Hard research is finally pointing to the traditional family. With this in mind efforts like state marriage amendments have farther-reaching implications than just morals and values (although these are vital, too). These efforts are essential to the survival of the human race.

R. Matthew Lytle is director of research for the North Carolina Family Policy Council.